Kosrae's Coast

Sea levels in the western Pacific are continuing to fall as El Nino conditions continue to threaten with about a 45% chance of El Nino occurring between March and May increasing to around 60% in June to April.

Sea level anomaly forecasts are current mixed with the PEAC forecast for March to May indicating a sea level that is around 2 inches (5 cm) higher than normal (normal being the average sea-level between 1983 -2001) and the Bureau of Meteorology model forecast which is indicating for the Kosrae region a fall in sea level of around 4 inches (10 cm) relative to normal (which is taken as the average sea level between 1981-2010). Irrespective of the different baseline there is still a divergence in the sea-level forecasts reflecting the rapidly changing sea-level anomalies that have been occurring over the last few months.

For the April and May tide calendars a value of 2 inches (5 cm) below normal has been assumed. This, along with the lower high tides get at this time of year should reduce the likelihood of coastal flooding occurring due to high tides. However if large waves, swell or strong winds occur at the same time as high tide, flooding of low-lying land and overwashing of exposed sections of the circumferential road will occur.

The tide calendars for April and May (tide prediction + seasonal sea-level forecast), are now available in both English and Kosraean. These can be downloaded below:

English: Apr-2015  |  May-2015

Kosraen:  Eprel-2015  |  Mei-2015

Copies of the tide calendars can also be obtained from the KIRMA office in Tofol.

Sea levels in the western Pacific have been falling over the last few months which is in keeping with the El Nino conditions that are developing. El Nino tends to result in lower sea levels on Kosrae. It is likely that tide levels on Kosrae will be close to normal over the next three months

However, the December to February period is when large tides occur on Kosrae. The largest king tides will be experienced between:

• 21 – 25 December (with tides between the 6 – 8 December also large)
• 19 – 23 January (with tides between 05 – 07 January also large)
• 17 – 21 February

Given the lower sea-levels that are occurring at present it is unlikely that these tides will be quite as high as was experienced in January/February last year. However if large waves, swell or strong winds occur at the same time as high tide, flooding of low-lying land and overwashing of exposed sections of the circumferential road will occur.

The tide calendars for December, January and February (tide prediction + seasonal sea-level forecast), are now available in both English and Kosraean. These can be downloaded below:

English: December-2014  |  January-2015  |  February-2015

Kosraean: Tisampuh_2014  |  Janwuri-2015  |  Febwuri-2015

Copies of the tide calendars can also be obtained from either the KIRMA office or PACC office in Tofol.

Mean sea levels have continued to fall over much of the western Pacific, particularly to the north and west of Kosrae (see plot below) and it is likely that tide levels will be close to normal over the next three months.

There are unlikely to be significant high tides causing coastal flooding during September and October (except if storms or large swell occurs). More significant high tide levels will begin to be experienced again in November, particularly around the 7-8 and 23-24 of November. However, these are unlikely to be as high as was experienced at this time last year.

The tide calendars for September, October and November (tide prediction + seasonal sea-level forecast), are now available in both English and Kosraean. These can be downloaded below:

English: September-2014 | October-2014| November-2014
Kosraean: Septempuh-2014 | Oktopa-2014 | Nofuhmpuh-2014

Copies of the tide calendars can also be obtained from either the KIRMA office or PACC office in Tofol.

Seasonal forecasts (for next few months) for sea levels were not available at the start of September from the Pacific ENSO Applications Centre (PEAC). Rather forecasts of sea level variability over the coming months from an interactive map from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was used. The figure below shows the sea level anomaly over the September to November period (relative to the 1981-2010 average) over the western Pacific. Over the next 3 months, this suggests a sea-level anomaly in the region around Kosrae of around 0 to 5 cm (0 – 2 inches) above the 1981-2010 average.