September, October & November tide tables

Sea levels are again rising around Kosrae and are expected to be around 2-4 inches higher than normal over the next 3 months.

Between September and November the highest tide levels will occur around Monday 14 to Thursday 17 November. High tides will be above 7ft and there would be a risk of flooding in larger than normal waves occur at the same time.

The tide calendars for September, October and November (tide prediction + seasonal sea-level forecast), are now available in both English and Kosraean. These can be downloaded below:

English: sept-2016 | oct-2016 | nov-2016

Kosraen:  septempuh-2016 | oktopa-2016 | nohfuhmpuh-2016

Copies of the tide calendars can also be obtained from the KIRMA office in Tofol.

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June, July & August tide tables

Sea levels are now close to normal around Kosrae.

The tide calendars for June, July and August (tide prediction + seasonal sea-level forecast), are now available in both English and Kosraean. These can be downloaded below:

English: June-2016 | Jul-2016 | Aug-2016

Kosraen:  Jun-2016 | Julae-2016 | Okos-2016

Copies of the tide calendars can also be obtained from the KIRMA office in Tofol.

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March, April and May tide tables and sea-level forecasts

Sea levels are beginning to rebound around Kosrae in the aftermath of the El Nino peak. On average they are forecast to be around 2 inches lower than normal over the next three months resulting in lower than normal low tides and less risk of very high tides and associated flooding.

The tide calendars for March, April and May (tide prediction + seasonal sea-level forecast), are now available in both English and Kosraean. These can be downloaded below:

English: March-2016 | April-2016 | May-2016

Kosraen:  Marj-2016 | Eprel-2016 | Mei-2016

Copies of the tide calendars can also be obtained from the KIRMA office in Tofol.

Posted in Coastal flooding, El Nino, High tides, Seasonal forecasts, Tide tables | 2 Comments

December, January and February tide predictions

Sea levels continue to be lower than normal around Kosrae as El Nino conditions cause lower sea levels across the western Pacific. It is estimated that sea levels and hence tide levels may be around 4 inches (10 cm) lower than normal over the next three months resulting in lower than normal low tides and less risk of very high tides and associated flooding.

The tide calendars for December, January and February (tide prediction + seasonal sea-level forecast), are now available in both English and Kosraean. These can be downloaded below:

English: December-2015 | January-2016 | February-2016

Kosraen:  Tisampuh-2015 | Janwuri-2016 | Febwuri-2016

Copies of the tide calendars can also be obtained from the KIRMA office in Tofol.

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September, October and November tide predictions and sea-level forecasts

Sea levels haven fallen significantly around Kosrae as El Nino conditions across the Pacific continue. It is estimated that sea levels and hence tide levels may be between 6 to 8 inches lower than normal over the next three months resulting in much lower than normal low tides and less risk of very high tides and associated flooding.

The tide calendars for September, October and November (tide prediction + seasonal sea-level forecast), are now available in both English and Kosraean. These can be downloaded below:

English: September-2015 | October-2015 | November-2015

Kosraen:  Septempuh-2015 | Oktopa-2015 | Nohfuhmpuh-2015

Copies of the tide calendars can also be obtained from the KIRMA office in Tofol.

Sea-level forecasts for October to December for the western Pacific. Source: http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/pasap/sla.shtml

Sea-level forecasts for October to December for the western Pacific. Source: http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/pasap/sla.shtml

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May, June and July tide predictions and seasonal sea level forecasts

Sea levels continue to fall around Kosrae as El Nino conditions continue. It is estimated that sea levels and hence tide levels may be between 6 to 8 inches lower than normal over the next three months resulting in lower than normal low tides.

The tide calendars for June, July and August (tide prediction + seasonal sea-level forecast), are now available in both English and Kosraean. These can be downloaded below:

English: June-2015 | July-2015 | August-2015

Kosraen:  Jun-2015 | Julae-2015 |Okos-2015

Copies of the tide calendars can also be obtained from the KIRMA office in Tofol.

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El Nino conditions now occurring

El-NinoStrong El Nino conditions are still occurring across the Pacific region.

This 2015/16 El Nino is now one of the top 3 strongest events of the last 40 years, similar in strength to the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events. Over the next few months it is expected that El Nino conditions will weaken.

The El Nino has been responsible for the increase in westerly winds, unsettled weather and number of tropical depressions and storms that Kosrae experienced in 2015. During the early period of El Nino conditions typhoons tend to form or track closer to Kosrae.

What should you now be aware of?

  • In 2016 Kosrae is expected to be at much lower risk of being impacted by severe typhoon than during than in 2015.
  • Drought conditions will continue to be potentially severe through to June 2016.
  • Less rain and drier conditions will typically be seen over the first half of 2016 (50% of normal between January and March 2016 and 75% of normal from April to June 2016).
  • Throughout the coming months ensure your water tank is full and that there are no leaks in the  guttering leading in to the tank or in the water pipes to your property. Keep an eye on your water usage, and reduce if rainfall does become less.
  • The low sea-levels that have been experienced over the last few months will tend to rebound over the next few months with sea levels coming close to normal by the middle of 2016.

The last El Nino occurred during 2009-10 and was moderate in strength. The last major El Nino to cause severe drought problems in Kosrae occurred in 1997-98.

For more information on current El Nino conditions and their impact on Kosrae see the Pacific ENSO Update newsletter.

Posted in Drought, El Nino, Typhoons | 1 Comment

Kosrae “Vital Access” video launched

A new video showcasing some of the climate change adaptation activities on Kosrae was launched in Samoa at the Pacific Climate Change Roundtable on Tuesday 12 May.

 

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Tropical Storm Dolphin damage pictures

Wind damage in Lelu (Photo courtesy of Kosrae DCO)

Wind damage in Lelu (Photo courtesy of Kosrae DCO)

Over the night of Friday 8th and Saturday 9th May Tropical Depression 07W / Tropical Storm Dolphin caused wind damage to vegetation and light structures across Kosrae, as well as flooding of property in Utwe due to large swell. Some initial photographs of the damage are available here.

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Tropical Depression 07 passing close to Kosrae

Over the night of Friday 8th May and through Saturday 9th May Tropical Depression Seven is going to pass close to the west of Kosrae. The current wind patterns on Friday evening are shown below.

Wind pattern due to Tropical Depression 07 currently located to the south of Kosrae

Wind pattern due to Tropical Depression 07 currently located to the south of Kosrae.

The tropical depression has been tracking east to the south of Kosrae and is forecast to bend north and then head west towards Pohnpei. It is unlikely to increase to a tropical storm until it is well west of Kosrae.  There is a medium (up to 50%) chance of winds reaching tropical storm strength (wind speeds of 62-88 km/hr) at Kosrae over the next 48 hours.

Likelihood of tropical storm strength winds over the Friday (7th) and Saturday (8th) May. Sourced from www.tropicalstormrisk.com

Likelihood of tropical storm strength winds over the Friday (8th) and Saturday (9th) May. Sourced from www.tropicalstormrisk.com

Damage is likely to be reasonably minimal typically to only the flimsiest lean-to type structures. Unsecured light signs blown down and unsecured corrugated iron blown about. Minor damage to banana trees and near-coastal agriculture, primarily from salt spray. Some small dead limbs, ripe coconuts, and dead palm fronds blown from trees. Some fragile and tender green leaves blown from trees such as papaya and fleshy broad leaf plants.

Wave conditions are likely to be highest off the south (Utwe) and south-east (Malem coasts. Seas are likely to be rough with higher than normal wave breaking on the fringing reef. Any wave overwash, flooding and damage is likely to occur around high tides which are at 5:47 pm on Friday and 6:04 am on Saturday. High tide levels are not particularly high, currently dropping from the spring tides in the middle of the week.

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