The latest Pacific ENSO Update bulleting whas just been released and can be downloaded from http://www.prh.noaa.gov/peac/update.php
The Kosrae information is summarised below:
2014 climate information
The total rainfall for the first 9 months of 2014 was slightly below average at all Kosrae reporting sites. The monsoon trough extended to Kosrae during April, with accompanying heavy rains. An early appearance of the monsoon (i.e., westerly winds) is a typical sign of impending El Niño. During May and June, the monsoon trough weakened and winds became light easterly at Kosrae. Rainfall was near average to below average. During July, monsoonal westerlies returned, bringing abundant rainfall from its associated tropical disturbances. During August, there was another break in the monsoon across most of Micronesia as enhanced rainfall and tropical cyclone development shifted into the region of the ITCZ in the central and eastern Pacific. August was a very dry month on Kosrae. September continued the August dry spell, but the monsoon returned and helped spawn two tropical cyclones (Phanfone and Vongfong) that formed in the Marshall Islands and passed close-by to the north of Kosrae in their developmental stages on the 27th of September and the 2nd of October, respectively. Heavy rain showers were the only effects of these tropical cyclones on Kosrae. No reports of damaging sea inundation were received from Kosrae.
Climate Outlook
Episodes of unusual westerly winds will likely be experienced on Kosrae through mid-January. Rainfall totals for the remainder of 2014 should be near or slightly above average. Through January 2015, there remains an elevated risk of a tropical storm passing close to Kosrae. Looking forward into early 2015 (January through May), there is a risk of drier than average conditions; however in the absence of a moderate or strong El Niño, we do not expect dryness to be severe.
Predicted rainfall for Kosrae State from October 2014 through September 2015 is:
