Kosrae Shoreline Management Plan launched

Fenno Brunken of the GIZ regional programme Coping with Climate Change in the Pacific Island Region (CCCPIR) at the launch of the Kosrae Shoreline Management Plan during the Micronesian Environment Forum. Seated are the Honourable Lyndon Jackson, Governor of Kosrae, Robert Jackson, Director of KIRMA and Simpson Abraham, FSM PACC Coordinator.

Fenno Brunken of the GIZ regional programme Coping with Climate Change in the Pacific Island Region (CCCPIR) at the launch of the Kosrae Shoreline Management Plan during the Micronesian Environment Forum. Seated are the Honourable Lyndon Jackson, Governor of Kosrae, Robert Jackson, Director of KIRMA and Simpson Abraham, FSM PACC Coordinator.

The updated Kosrae Shoreline Management Plan was formally launched on the 21 March by the Honourable Lyndon Jackson, Governor of Kosrae, during the Micronesian Environment Forum.

The Shoreline Management Plan was an initiative in 2000 of the Development Review Commission (now Kosrae Island Resource Management Authority). This revision of the Shoreline Management Plan incorporates new information of coastal hazards, climate change and what it means for coastal areas on Kosrae and the communities and development located there. It sets out a pathway over the next one to two generations to create a more resilient society and one that provides a secure foundation for our future generations to better manage the ever increasing impacts of climate change and sea-level rise on Kosrae.

The plan has been develop as a collaborations between the five village communities, Municipal staff, KIRMA, the FSM PACC Office, and various Government offices on Kosrae with technical support and guidance provided by the National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA) and Secretariat of the Pacific Community Applied Science and Technology Division (SPC-SOPAC) The revision of the plan was funded through support by the  Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) regional programme Coping with Climate Change in the Pacific Island Region (CCCPIR).

Kosrae-SMPThe full Kosrae Shoreline Management Plan can be downloaded by clicking on the image to the left (6Mb pdf file).

 

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March to May 2014 tide predictions and seasonal high tide level forecasts

Seasonal forecasts (for next few months) for sea levels and rainfall for Kosrae produced by the Pacific ENSO Applications Centre (PEAC) suggest that:

  • Sea-level in the region around Kosrae will tend to be around 3 inches higher than normal for the period March to May. This means all tide levels will be pushed up by 3 inches.
  • The high tide levels that were experienced in December, January and February will ease somewhat. The highest tides during the three month period will occur between the 1-3 March and around 16-17 May.
  • For the next three months, rainfall is expected to be near normal levels for the time of year.

Further information is available from the Pacific ENSO Update newsletter.

The tide calendars for March, April and May (tide prediction + seasonal sea-level forecast), are now available in both English and Kosraean. These can be downloaded below:

English:  March-2014 | April-2014  | May-2014

Kosraean:  Marj-2014 |  Eprel-2014  | Mei-2014

The three month seasonal forecast of highest daily tides and dates of extremely high tides is only available in English:  Mar-May-2014

Copies of the tide calendars can also be obtained from either the KIRMA office or PACC office in Tofol.

In addition to the Pacific ENSO Applications Centre, forecasts of sea level variability over the coming months are also available as an interactive map from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The figure below shows the sea level anomaly over the March to May period (relative to the 1981-2010 average) over the western Pacific. Over the next 3 months, this suggests a sea-level anomaly in the region around Kosrae of between 5 cm to 10 cm (2-4 inches) above the 1981-2010 average.

map

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December 2013 to February 2014 predictions and seasonal high tide level forecasts

Seasonal forecasts (for next few months) for sea levels and rainfall for Kosrae produced by the Pacific ENSO Applications Centre (PEAC) suggest that:

  • Sea-level in the region around Kosrae will tend to be around 4 inches higher than normal for the period December, January and February. This means all tide levels will be pushed up by 4 inches.
  • The next three months will see some very high tides experienced on Kosrae. The normally high tides experienced at this time of year will be pushed even higher by about 4 inches due to the higher sea-level anomaly. The largest ides will occur between Monday 2nd to Thursday 5th December, Tuesday 31st December to Saturday 4th January, around Friday 17th January, from Wednesday 29 January to Sunday 02 February, and from the 28th February.
  • Kosrae has experienced only about two-thirds of the rainfall it normally experiences over the last few months. For the next three months, rainfall should return to near normal levels or may be slightly wetter than normal.
  • No adverse tropical typhoon activity is expected to directly impact Kosrae over the next three months. However, there has been an increase in tropical typhoon activity in the Western North Pacific recently (including Typhoon Haiyan one of the strongest typhoons ever experienced which impacted Yap and Palau and devastated the Philippines). If this activity continues Kosrae could experience some effects such as high swell waves if a cyclone were to form to the north or north-west.

Further information is available from the Pacific ENSO Update newsletter.

The tide calendars for June, July and and August (tide prediction + seasonal sea-level forecast), are now available in both English and Kosraean. These can be downloaded below:

English:  December-2013 |  January 2014February-2014

Kosraean:  Tisampuh-2013  |  Janwuri-2014  |  Febwuri-2014

The three month seasonal forecast of highest daily tides and dates of extremely high tides is only available in English:  Dec-2013-Feb-2014-Seasonal

Copies of the tide calendars can also be obtained from the KIRMA office in Tofol.

In addition to the Pacific ENSO Applications Centre, forecasts of sea level variability over the coming months are also available as an interactive map from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The figure below shows the sea level anomaly over the December to February period (relative to the 1981-2010 average) over the western Pacific. Over the next 3 months, this suggests a sea-level anomaly in the region around Kosrae of between 5 cm to 10 cm (2-4 inches) above the 1981-2010 average (which is a little lower than the PEAC estimate).

map2

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September to November predictions and seasonal high tide level forecasts

Seasonal forecasts (for next few months) for sea levels and rainfall for Kosrae produced by the Pacific ENSO Applications Centre suggest that:

  • Sea-level in the region around Kosrae will tend to be around 3 inches higher than normal for the period September, October and November. This means all tide levels will be pushed up by 3 inches.
  • For the next several months, weak easterly winds should dominate in Kosrae. Areas of disturbed weather should episodically affect Kosrae during the remainder of the year, with monthly rainfall totals running near average.
  • No adverse tropical cyclone activity is expected for Kosrae during the remaining months of 2013. Any development should be well north of the island.

Further information is available from the Pacific ENSO Update newsletter.

The tide calendars for June, July and and August (tide prediction + seasonal sea-level forecast), are now available in both English and Kosraean. These can be downloaded below:

English:  Sept-2013 |  Oct-2013  |  Nov-2013

Kosraean:  Septembu-2013  |  Oktoba-2013  |  Nofombu-2013

The three month seasonal forecast of highest daily tides and dates of extremely high tides is only available in English:  Sept-Nov-Seasonal-2013

High tide levels are likely to be more modest in September and October with the highest tide levels  and hence greater possibility of coastal flooding, particularly if large waves occur over the same period) likely to occur between the 03 – 06 November and 18 – 19 November.

Copies of the tide calendars can also be obtained from the KIRMA office in Tofol.

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King tides in June

Some of the highest predicted tides of the year were experienced towards the end of June. In Kosrae high tide levels over 7 feet were predicted during the early hours of Monday 24th and Tuesday 25th June. Fortunately there doesn’t appear to have been any significant inundation.

The latest Pacific ENSO Update newsletter has some further information on what caused these high (king) tides. This is what they had to say:

On 25 June (the day of that month’s full moon), and for a day or two before and after, the high tides were unusually high across Micronesia. On Majuro, they contributed to damaging inundation. Elsewhere, abnormally high tides were observed but did not cause any significant inundation or damage. These high-est of high tides of the year are locally referred to as King tides. “King tide” is not a scientific term, nor is it used in a scientific context. Use of the term originated in Australia, New Zealand and other Pacific nations to refer to an especially high tide that occurs only a few times per year.

Throughout Micronesia, the highest, and lowest tides of the year occur in June and again in December, based on the axial tilt of the earth. Another factor that can cause the highest of high tides to be even higher is the varying distance of the moon from Earth. When the moon is closest to the earth in its elliptical orbit (perigee) at the timing of the full or the new moon (syzygy), it can add about 15% to the height of the high tide. This phenomenon, resulting in a so-called “supermoon”, occurred during the full moon of 25 June 2013. The technical name is the perigee-syzygy of the Earth-Moon-Sun system. The term “supermoon” is not astronomical. It originated in modern astrology. The combined effect of the Sun and Moon on Earth’s oceans and tides, is greatest when the moon is either new or full. On 25 June 2013, everything came together to produce King tides in Micronesia: the moon was full, it was a “supermoon”, the tides were at their seasonal peak, and the mean sea level was elevated by about half-a-foot by persistently strong trade winds.

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June to August tide predictions and seasonal forecasts

Seasonal forecasts (for next few months) for sea levels and rainfall for Kosrae produced by the Pacific ENSO Applications Centre suggest that:

  • Sea-level in the region around Kosrae will tend to be around 3 inches higher than normal for the period June, July and August. This means all tide levels will be pushed up by 3 inches.
  • Rainfall is expected to be near average for the June to August period. Near average rainfall is also expected for the remainder of the year.

Further information is available from the Pacific ENSO Update newsletter.

The tide calendars for June, July and and August (tide prediction + seasonal sea-level forecast), are now available in both English and Kosraean. These can be downloaded below:

English:  June-2013  |  July-2013  |  August-2013

Kosraean:  Jun-2013  |  Julae-2013  |  Okos-2013

The three month seasonal forecast of highest daily tides and dates of extremely high tides is only available in English:  Seasonal-June-July-2013

The highest tide levels over the next three months (and hence greater possibility of coastal flooding, particularly if large waves occur over the same period) are likely to occur between the 22 – 26 June and 22-25 July.

Copies of the tide calendars can also be obtained from the KIRMA office in Tofol.

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March to May tide predictions and seasonal forecasts

Seasonal forecasts (for next few months) for sea levels and rainfall for Kosrae produced by the Pacific ENSO Applications Centre suggest that:

  • Sea-level in the region around Kosrae will tend to be around 3-4 inches higher than normal for the period March, April and May. This means all tide levels will be pushed up 3-4 inches.
  • Rainfall is expected to be slightly higher than average (110%) for the April to June period. Beyond that, for the rest of the year, rainfall amounts are forecast to be around normal.

Further information is available from the Pacific ENSO Update newsletter.

The english versions of the tide calendars for March and April (tide prediction + seasonal sea-level forecast), and the seasonal daily high tide forecasts for the next three months can be downloaded from here:

Kosrae-March-2013

Kosrae-April-2013

Kosrae-May-2013

Kosrae-Seasonal

The highest tide levels over the next two months (and hence greater possibility of coastal flooding, particularly if large waves occur over the same period) are likely to occur between the 10 – 13 and 27 – 30 March, between 26 – 29 April and the 24 – 28 May.

The revised Kosraean versions of the tide calendars are still being translated and will be uploaded shortly.

 

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Len wo

Welcome to the new Kosrae Coast website. Please bear with us as we transition the old site to this one and we update it and develop new content.

Kulo ma lulap

Doug Ramsay & KIRMA

 

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